Champions League Play-Offs Seal Round of 16 Line-Up
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Key Takeaways:
- Real Madrid beat Benfica 2-1 (3-1 aggregate) with Vinicius Jr winner; pre-match -150 favorites cashed comfortably.
- Atalanta stun Dortmund 4-1 (4-3 agg), Galatasaray advance 7-5 over Juventus after extra time.
- Arsenal lead outright winner market at +370, Real Madrid is now +1100 ahead of Friday’s round of 16 draw.
Vinicius Jr Fires Real Madrid Past Benfica
Real Madrid defeated Benfica 2-1 in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League knockout play-off on February 25, 2026, at the Santiago Bernabéu, advancing 3-1 on aggregate. Benfica took an early lead through Rafa Silva in the 14th minute, but Aurélien Tchouaméni equalised just two minutes later. Vinicius Junior scored the decisive goal in the 80th minute to secure the victory and progression.
The Spanish sports giants entered as strong -150 favorites to win the leg and near -1000 to advance. Vinicius anytime goalscorer odds around +150 proved highly popular among bettors and delivered. This result follows their 1-0 first-leg win in Lisbon. The tie tested Real Madrid’s resolve after a challenging league phase position, keeping their 15th European title hopes alive at current football odds of +1100.
PSG Advance as Defending Champions in Derby Thriller
Defending champions Paris Saint-Germain drew 2-2 with Monaco on February 25, progressing 5-4 on aggregate in an intense French derby. Monaco led via Akliouche before the break, but a red card shifted momentum. Marquinhos headed PSG level in the 60th minute, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia put them ahead in the 66th. Monaco’s late equalizer through Teze was insufficient. PSG had won the first leg 3-2 and were -500 favourites to advance.
Kvaratskhelia’s goal cashed anytime scorer odds near +105. The narrow victory preserves PSG’s back-to-back title hopes now priced at +750-800 outright. For the 2025/26 Champions League, the result validates squad depth under pressure and boosts French clubs’ standing. Bettors focused on football betting, capitalized on both-teams-to-score markets at evens. The tie sharpens PSG for potential round-of-16 clashes against sides like Barcelona or Chelsea, potentially reigniting rivalries and driving higher betting volume on progression and goalscorer specials once pairings emerge.
Atalanta Stun Dortmund with Remarkable Comeback
Atalanta produced a remarkable comeback, thrashing Borussia Dortmund 4-1 in the second leg to win 4-3 on aggregate. Goals from Gianluca Scamacca (5th minute), Davide Zappacosta (45th), Mario Pasalic (57th) and a last-kick penalty by Lazar Samardzic overwhelmed Dortmund, who replied through Karim Adeyemi (75th).
Atalanta, priced as slight +105 favorites for the leg, rewarded backers handsomely in an open contest that saw overs markets cash. The Italian side of sports, 15th in the league phase, produced an attacking masterclass at home. Dortmund’s elimination marks a disappointing European exit despite strong earlier form.
This result injects fresh energy into the 2026 tournament by proving mid-tier sides can topple established names. Atalanta’s outright odds now sit around +4500 but offer enhanced each-way appeal in futures. For bettors, it validates overs and anytime goalscorer markets on creative players like Teun Koopmeiners.
Galatasaray Shock Juventus to Reach Round of 16
Galatasaray advanced to the Champions League round of 16 with a 7-5 aggregate victory over Juventus despite losing the second leg 2-3 after extra time on February 25, 2026. Victor Osimhen and Baris Yilmaz scored in extra time to protect their commanding 5-2 first-leg lead. Juventus fought back through Locatelli (penalty), Gatti and McKennie but fell short.
Coming from 20th in the league phase, Galatasaray were significant underdogs at +250 to qualify, creating major value for punters. Osimhen’s anytime goalscorer price around +170 was widely backed. The Turkish club’s progression represents one of the biggest stories of the play-offs, challenging traditional powerhouses.
This shock matters for the 2026 Champions League by increasing diversity in the knockout stages and creating exciting new rivalries. It validates the expanded format’s ability to produce upsets that sustain global interest and boost betting liquidity on longshot teams.
